WTPN21 PGTW 270530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270121ZSEP24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.3N 127.0E TO 19.0N 124.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270250Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1N 126.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 20.4N 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 126.8E, APPROXIMATELY 245 
NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MORE DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWARD, NORTHEAST OF LUZON, AND DEEPEN OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 270130).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280530Z.//
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