WTPN21 PGTW 270130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 127.0E TO 17.7N 124.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.5N 126.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MORE DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWARD, NORTHEAST OF LUZON, AND DEEPEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280130Z.//
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