ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251451ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26SEP24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CIMARON) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 260300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, 
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES. A 251044Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD 
CONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT CONVERGENT 
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES, WHICH IS FUELING THE 
AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 251500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.5N 
126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
SOUTH. A 260100Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEAST 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
MIYAKOJIMA SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10-17KTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING THE POSITION AND INTENSITY 
ASSESSMENTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 
29-30 DEGREES C.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
35.5N 145.6E HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NO LONGER 
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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