WTPN21 PHNC 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 16.0N 102.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E), IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.0W, 
APPROXIMATELY 133 NM WSW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A SYSTEM PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
10E WITH PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH EAST AS WELL AS DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30C) AS WELL AS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15KTS) MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS IS HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL
MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
260600Z.
//
NNNN