ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25SEP24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 250300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.2N 149.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 149.3E, APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST 
OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM, 
CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
NORTHWEST WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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