ABPW10 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240900Z-250600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZSEP024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 27.7N 134.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 395 
NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH INCREASING CORE CONVECTION. A 240432Z 
COWVR COLOR COMPOSITE 34 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
94W IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND EQUATORWARD OF 
A STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT WITH 
WEAK DIFFLUENCE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29C) AND LOW-TO-MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE CONDITIONS ARE 
CONSIDERED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 
WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A GENERALLY 
SLOW, ERRATIC TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. 
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD TOWARD 
CENTRAL JAPAN, WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
240800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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