ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZSEP2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.3N 108.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.7N 
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 394 NM SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST 
QUADRANT THAT IS BEING SHEARED EASTWARD. 94W IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND EQUATORWARD OF A STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (27-29C) AND LOW-TO-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 
KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED MARGINAL DUE TO ITS 
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE A GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD KYUSHU 
WITH GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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