ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200152ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200552ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20SEP24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (PULASAN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 120.3E, APPROXIMATELY 78 NM NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, 
CHINA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.2N 127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED 
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION IS FLARING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT 
WITH ANVILS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS 
THE SYSTEM IS FORMING ADJACENT TO AN EXTENSIVE BELT OF 20-30 KNOT 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC AND 
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DEPICT A DEEPENING SYSTEM FORMING BESIDE THE WIDE 
SWATH OF VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND HEADING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, THEY DO INDICATE A 
POSSIBILITY FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST TO WRAP AROUND THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
CREATING A CONDUCIVE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 200600) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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