ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18SEP24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.4N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 110.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM EAST 
OF DA NANG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, EMERGING 
OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0N 114.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 378 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A OBSCURED CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AS WELL. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD, EMERGING OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-
15 KNOTS, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 
30-31 DEGREES C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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