ABPW10 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180200Z-180600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17SEP24 1800Z, TYPHOON 15W (PULASAN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
22.3N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 396 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 172100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.3N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM 
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE 
TO GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE LOOSELY AGREEING ON THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS, HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THEM ARE IN SOLID 
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 
114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE 
TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
HOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET DUE TO HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) OF VWS. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE SIGNS 
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 99W CONTINUES ITS TRACK 
WESTWARD TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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