WTPN22 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171251ZSEP24//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 110.7E TO 15.8N 107.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 110.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.3N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 129 
NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE 
TO GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE LOOSELY AGREEING ON THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS, HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THEM ARE IN SOLID 
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 171300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
190200Z.//
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