WTPN22 PGTW 171300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161251ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 161300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 118.2E TO 16.9N 109.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.3N 118.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 170230Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS 20-25 
KNOTS EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS 
WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF 
A (WTPN22 PGTW 161300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181300Z.//
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