WTPN22 PGTW 161300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZSEP24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 
152000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 124.7E TO 17.1N 115.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 123.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.3N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 239 
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK OVER LUZON, WITH STEADY STRENGTHENING IN THE 
ONE TO TWO DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE SYSTEM REORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
171300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.2E (INVEST 97W).//
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