ABPW10 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160300Z-160600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16SEP24 0000Z, TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
30.9N 121.6E, APPROXIMATELY 19 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 160300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0N 126.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED, DEEP, FRAGMENTED, AND FLARING 
CONVECTION THAT ARE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15  
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE 
AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST-TO 
EASTERN PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRACK AWAY 
FROM THE MARIANAS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIMETER OF 
AN EVOLVING GYRE-LIKE PATTERN THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND FROM THE 
NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA TO THE SOUTH CHINA, DOTTED BY AT LEAST THREE 
VORTICES, INCLUDING 97W. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 
HOURS IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS AWAY FROM THE LLC AND NOT NECESSARILY 
ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL WIND SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 152000) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0N 126.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPRESSING THE POTENTIAL 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 1.A.(1) WITH 14W FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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