ABPW10 PGTW 152000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/152000Z-160600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15SEP24 1200Z, TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
30.5N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0N 126.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED, DEEP, FRAGMENTED, AND FLARING 
CONVECTION THAT ARE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE 
AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST- 
TO EASTERN PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRACK AWAY 
FROM THE MARIANAS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIMETER OF 
AN EVOLVING GYRE-LIKE PATTERN THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EXTEND FROM THE 
NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA TO THE SOUTH CHINA, DOTTED BY AT LEAST THREE 
VORTICES, INCLUDING 97W. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 
HOURS IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS AWAY FROM THE LLC AND NOT NECESSARILY 
ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL WIND SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 152000) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0N 126.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 312 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT. A 151232Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED 
CIRCULATION, WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
TOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH. 
//
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