ABPW10 PGTW 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151600Z-160600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15SEP24 1200Z, TYPHOON 14W (BEBINCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
30.5N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0N 143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A BELT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE 
SEA, FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS NEAR GUAM ARE DRIFTING CYCLONICALLY, CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICTING BROAD 
CYCLONIC TURNING. EXISTING DEEP CONVECTION IS CHAOTIC AND STRONGLY 
SHEARED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A 150347Z AMSR2 
IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS WEAK AND VERY FRAGMENTED BANDING, WITH NOTHING 
WELL DEFINED AT PRESENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IN THIS 
VICINITY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING CONSOLIDATED IMMEDIATELY 
WEST OF THE MARIANAS AS A WESTERLY WIND BURST CAUSES SPIKING 
VORTICITY VALUES ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL 
GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW QUICKLY OR DEEPLY TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF 
CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENTLY FAIR AGREEMENT 
THAT IT WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND HEAD GENERALLY NORTH 
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME 
PART OF A MUCH LARGER REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGHING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 
126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151232Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE 
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A 
SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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