WTPN21 PGTW 090230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 148.2E TO 14.9N 142.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 148.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.7N 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 268 
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 082318Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS WEAK (5-10 
KTS) WINDS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER (15-20 KNOTS) WINDS DISPLACED OVER 100 NM TO THE NORTH. THE 
ASCAT-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME CLOSED, 
HINTING AT CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL 
QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
100230Z.//
NNNN