ABPW10 PGTW 090230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/090230Z-090600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080221ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07SEP24 0600Z, TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 
106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7N 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 082318Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS WEAK (5-10 
KTS) WINDS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER (15-20 KNOTS) WINDS DISPLACED OVER 100 NM TO THE NORTH. THE 
ASCAT-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME CLOSED, 
HINTING AT CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL 
QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTPN21 PGTW 080230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.3N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON 
DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100NM AND THE 
HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK 
CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND 082120Z 
SSMIS F-17 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT NO WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT RATHER A LARGE AREA OF ROTATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW VWS (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD EASTWARD AND 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE RYUKU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP 
SOME ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, BUT LIKELY FAIL 
TO SHOW TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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