ABIO10 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/080900Z-081800ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080851ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.5N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM 
SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A SHALLOW CONSOLIDATING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH CURVED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING.  A PARTIAL 080341Z GPM GMI 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATELY 
DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-
30 
DEGREES C. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR IS THE ELEVATED 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER A SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS AND THE SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES FARTHER NORTH. 
GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (ABIO10 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
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