WTIO21 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.7N 84.7E TO 18.0N 86.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 86.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.5N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A SHALLOW CONSOLIDATING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING.  A PARTIAL 080341Z 
GPM GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, 
MODERATELY DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES C. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL 
FACTOR IS THE ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER A SHARP GRADIENT 
EXISTS AND THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM 
PASSES FARTHER NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
090900Z.//
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