ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07SEP24 0600Z, TYPHOON 12W (YAGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 
106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 070900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 159.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A DISORANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE 
BANDING. A PARTIAL 080341Z AMSR2 MICROVWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL 
CLOUD BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WITH WEAKLY 
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AN EARLIER 062339Z METOP-B 
ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS CYCLONIC BANDING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
TROUGHING REGION BUT AN ABSENCE OF WESTERLY SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS, GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. 
GLOBALMODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.3N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 
100NM AND THE HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
IMAGERY SATELLITE (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, 
INCLUDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WITH SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES 
C. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY BROAD AND UNDERGO ONLY LIMITED 
CONSOLIDATION. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM 
WILL TURN WEST TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP SOME ENHANCED 
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC. FOR HAZARDS 
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS 
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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