ABIO10 PGTW 072000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/072000Z-081800ZSEP2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.5N 
85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST 
SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LLCC LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR AT 
LEAST THE LAST 12 HOURS, BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING JUST OFFSHORE 
THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92B IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VWS, AND GOOD 
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WITH THE SYSTEM LYING UNDERNEATH 
A WEAKENED TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE 
THAT 92B WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, LIKELY MOVING INLAND OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN INDIA 
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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