ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03SEP24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 12W (YAGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
18.3N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.7N 147.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 147.2E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM 
EAST OF IWO TO. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030053Z 
GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE 
OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 030030Z ASCAT-B 
SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25-30 
KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, BUT MUCH LIGHTER 
WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (28-29C) 
SSTS, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE POOR INDICATION OF A CONSOLIDATION, 
INDICATING 93W AS A WEAK CIRCULATION GRADUALLY TRACKING NORTH BUT DUE 
TO THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT 
LIKELY HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL AND MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY 
DEPICTED IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.1N 179.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 179.3E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND 
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. A 020141Z ATMS 88.2 
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED BANDS DISPLACED OVER THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A WEAK, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 
012130Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH A WEAK 
CORE AND MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED OVER 90NM TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED UNDER A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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