ABPW10 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/010300Z-010600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31AUG24 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SHANSHAN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 33.6N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 310900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 126.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 353 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR 
92W ARE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW 
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A WEST 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS UP THE EASTERN COAST OF THE 
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECMWF AND GFS AGGRESSIVELY FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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