ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZAUG2024-010600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310151ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31AUG24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SHANSHAN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7N 
131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC 
TURNING, WITH EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND MULTIPLE WEAK SPINNERS. 
A 310356Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED, FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM 
PALAU INDICATES VIGOROUS (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE 
GRADIENT LEVEL, ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL 
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH ECMWF 
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) IN THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS WHILE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SHOWING TD DEVELOPMENT IN 2-3 DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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