ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-
301800ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291751ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.3N 70.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 291301Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD AND 
STRENGTHEN, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA WHERE IT WILL FIND 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING MODERATE (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND WARM 
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTIO21 PGTW 290300 COR) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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