WTIO21 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.9N 69.2E TO 24.4N 66.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 282345Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.9N 69.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.3N 70.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 
COAST OF INDIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, 
AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 91A WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH A 
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
300300Z.//
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