ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-
291800ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.3N 70.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 69.9E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ORGANIZING OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF INDIA. A 281314Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, 
INCLUDING MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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