ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/271800Z-
281800ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.3N 
70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY AND A 271328Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD 
BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT. SCATTEROMETERY DATA SHOWS OFFSHORE FLOW OF WESTERLY WINDS 
PEAKING AT 25 KNOTS. 91A IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT ITS LOCATION IS CURRENTLY 
OVER LAND, HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91A 
WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE ARABIAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHERE 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE VWS (15-20KTS) WOULD 
REPRESENT AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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