WTPN22 PHNC 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220051Z AUG 24//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 220100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 112.2W TO 13.8N 117.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 112.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 111.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.3W, APPROXIMATELY 
301 NM SOUTH SOUTH EAST OF CLARION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL ASA 2230148Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS 
AN AREA OF FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LESS THAN 10 KTS, WHILE WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-31C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240300Z.
//
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