WTPN21 PHNC 201330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 137.4W TO 13.7N 139.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 137.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.2N 137.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 137.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1153 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 201030Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN AREA WITH A 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90E IS 
IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 90E WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND GENERALLY TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS 
HAWAII. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 38 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
211330Z.//
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