WTPN21 PHNC 191330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 10.7N 137.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081920Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 137.9W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4N 138.2W NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 137.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1774 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 191012Z ATMS N-21 88.2 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND TO THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90E 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
201330Z.
//
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