ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/181800Z-
191800ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.3S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM WEST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 181344Z SSMIS 
91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A  181618Z ASCAT B PASS DEPICTS AN 
ASYMMETRIC AREA OF CIRCULATION FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A POORLY 
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA 
THAT IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WEAK 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
90S WILL NOT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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