WTPN21 PHNC 181330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171330ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 109.6W TO 16.7N 115.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 110.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9N 106.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 110.2W, APPROXIMATELY 1153 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 180903Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A WELL DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 171330).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
191330Z.
//
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