WTXS21 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161751Z AUG 24//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 161800)//
RMKS/
1. THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 161800) THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
(INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3S 
70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 161329Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS AN AREA THAT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WEAK 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
90S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND GENERALLY TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2448 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
//
NNNN