ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z-
171800ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
43.0S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 73.4E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM 
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
161329Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA THAT IS 
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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