ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151751ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.0S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 73.9E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
151132Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA THAT IS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL 
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
151800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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