WTPN21 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.0N 150.6E TO 32.5N 148.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 122000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.4N 149.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) REMAINS LOCATED NEAR 
26.4N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121804Z 
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) THAT IS FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE LLCC. A 121147Z 
ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH 
GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS, 
DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST, AND WARM (29-30C) SST. OVERALL MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS AGREEMENT ON INVEST 96W CONSOLIDATING SLIGHTLY WHILE 
TRACKING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
132200Z.//
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