ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120151ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 12AUG24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 39.0N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 87 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.1N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 508 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 112058Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN AREA THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) 
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT SHOWING GRADUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 31.4N 
153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 716 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA. INVEST AREA 
95W IS NO LONGER ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM BASED ON MANUAL AND 
AUTOMATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION ANALYSES AND HAS BEEN REASSESSED AS A 
TROPICAL SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 300NM TO 
THE SOUTH, GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A 112250Z ASCAT PASS 
REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH UP TO 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE LLCC, AND A BAND OF ELEVATED, NEAR GALE-FORCE 
WINDS EXTENDING FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PROVES THAT 
THE LLCC HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE BAND OF STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERY 
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON GYRE FLOW. ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM (26-28C) SSTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-15 KTS) VWS, OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR 
LYING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS 
THAT WHAT WILL BECOME TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE PRESENCE 
OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR AND MOVEMENT OVER COOLER WATERS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 
      (1) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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