ABPW10 PGTW 060930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060930Z-070600ZAUG2024//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060851ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.2N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. THIS VERY LARGE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE, WHICH 
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC, WITH AN EXTENSIVE 
SWATH OF 15-25 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 
THE EAST PHILIPPINE SEA TO ABOUT 145E. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS 
REGION RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS, REFLECTING THE OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF 
THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL 
MESOVORTICES (23.1N 126.8E, 25.1N 126.8E, 24.6N 122.7E) ROTATING 
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTROID, WHICH REPRESENTS THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060442Z AMSR2 36 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH ISOLATED 
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS, WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE 
(30-31 C); HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS HINDERING 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION 
SOUTH OF OKINAWA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 
17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 26.3N 141.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 106 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO-TO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 
060601Z TMS (TROPICS) 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. SURFACE 
WINDS FROM IWO-TO INDICATE STEADY WEST-SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 
10-15 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE NEAR 1001 MB AND A 2 MB SLP DECREASE 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH 
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A 
SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS 
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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