ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.0N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 244 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. THE MONSOON GYRE EVENT CONTINUES TO 
THRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA WITH INVEST 91W HANGING ON 
AS THE ANCHOR POINT OF A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC ROTATION THAT IS STARTING 
TO CONDENSE, WITH A DIAMETER NOW SLIGHTLY HEDGED OVER 1200NM. INVEST 
91W IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA THEN START ITS TREK EASTWARD, BUT NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME ELEVATED WINDS 
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AS INVEST 
93W SLIDES DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO 91W. OVER 
THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, THIS GYRE WILL CONTINUOUSLY PUMP OUT 
ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY 
IN A BAND OF ELEVATED, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, SUCH AS INVEST 94W 
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE FAR SOUTH-EASTERN CORNER OF THE 
GYRE CIRCULATION. ANY OF THE NOW AND FUTURE SMALL CIRCULATIONS COULD 
REACH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WRAPPING UP AND AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE 
OF THE GYRE OR MERGING INTO THE LARGER ANCHOR CIRCULATION. MULTIPLE 
INVEST AREAS WILL POP-UP AND DISAPPEAR DURING THIS EVENT, BUT DUE TO 
POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS IN THIS SCENARIO, JTWC WILL BE IN A 
MORE REACTIVE MODE, OPENING AND CLOSING INVESTS AS THE AVAILABLE DATA 
REVEALS THEIR EXISTENCE. ACROSS THE SPAN OF THE GYRE, THE ENVIRONMENT 
IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND 
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR, BUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT WILL VARY BASED 
ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE INVEST AREAS WITHIN THE GYRE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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