WTPN22 PHNC 050200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151Z AUG 24//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 105.3W TO 16.2N 110.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 105.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1N 103.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1241 NM SSE 
OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED MUTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING, OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONEMTNAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96E WILL 
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE. 
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E 
WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT OR CAUSE A FUSION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 040200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060200Z.//
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