ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
25.1N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 406 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. THE MONSOON GYRE EVENT IS NOW FIRMLY 
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA, WITH INVEST 91W BEING 
THE ANCHOR POINT OF A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC ROTATION, WITH A DIAMETER 
NOW EXCEEDING 1400NM. INVEST 91W IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST 
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  SOME ELEVATED WINDS 
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, AND THE 
PRESENCE OF INVEST 93W ROUGHLY 40NM NORTH OF 91W IS RACING DOWN FROM 
THE NORTH AND WILL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MERGE INTO THE LARGE 
PRESSURE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH 91W.  BUT OTHERWISE 91W IS NOT EXPECTED 
TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO ASSETS AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT WEEK 
OR TWO, THIS GYRE WILL CONTINUOUSLY PUMP OUT ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATIONS 
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY IN A BAND OF ELEVATED, 
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, SUCH AS INVEST 92W CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD 
INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GYRE CIRCULATION. ANY OF THE 
NOW AND FUTURE SMALL CIRCULATIONS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE 
WRAPPING UP AND AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GYRE OR MERGING INTO 
THE LARGER ANCHOR CIRCULATION. MULTIPLE INVEST AREAS WILL POP-UP AND 
DISAPPEAR DURING THIS EVENT, BUT DUE TO POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS 
IN THIS SCENARIO, JTWC WILL BE IN A MORE REACTIVE MODE, OPENING AND 
CLOSING INVESTS AS THE AVAILABLE DATA REVEALS THEIR EXISTENCE. ACROSS 
THE SPAN OF THE GYRE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM 
SSTS, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR, BUT THE 
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT WILL VARY BASED ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF 
THE INVEST AREAS WITHIN THE GYRE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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