WTPN22 PHNC 040200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030152Z AUG 24//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 030200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 102.9W TO 15.3N 108.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 103.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5N 97.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.1W, APPROXIMATELY 1444 NM SE OF 
SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 032036Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SCATTERED AROUND THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96E WILL TRACK 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 030200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
050200Z.
//
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