ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAUG2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.1N 
137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 527 NM EAST OF KADENA AB. THE MONSOON GYRE EVENT 
WHICH WAS PREDICTED LAST WEEK, HAS STARTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN 
PHILIPPINE SEA, AFTER A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVED SOUTH OF 
JAPAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND HAS DIVED SOUTHWARD, WHILE BECOMING MORE 
TROPICAL IN NATURE. INVEST 91W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED FROM ITS EARLIER 
POSITION IN THE CENTROID OF THE LARGER ROTATION, TO TRACK THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS THE ANCHOR POINT OF THE MONSOON GYRE 
AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INVEST 91W ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, AS IT REMAINS THE ANCHOR POINT OF THE MONSOON 
GYRE AND THUS NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, 
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, DUE TO GRADIENT PACKING, 
BUT OTHERWISE 91W IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO ASSETS 
AT THIS TIME. THE OVERALL GYRE CIRCULATION IS QUITE LARGE, SPANNING OUT 
TO 600NM OR MORE (BASED ON THE RADIUS OF THE OUTER MOST CLOSED ISOBAR). 
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, THIS GYRE WILL CONTINUOUSLY PUMP OUT 
ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY 
IN A BAND OF ELEVATED, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. ANY OF THESE SMALL 
CIRCULATIONS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WRAPPING UP AND AROUND 
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GYRE. MULTIPLE INVEST AREAS WILL POP-UP AND 
DISAPPEAR DURING THIS EVENT, BUT DUE TO POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS 
IN THIS SCENARIO, JTWC WILL BE IN A MORE REACTIVE MODE, OPENING AND 
CLOSING INVESTS AS THE AVAILABLE DATA REVEALS THEIR EXISTENCE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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