WTPN22 PHNC 030200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151Z AUG 24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 030200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 101.7W TO 10.5N 97.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 97.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 
97.1W, APPROXIMATELY 1728 NM SE OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 021953Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
A DISORGANZIED, OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
CONVECTION SCATTERED AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96E WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
040200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.3W.//
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