WTPN21 PHNC 030200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030152Z AUG 24//
AMPN REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 030200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 12.3N 129.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 030000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.3W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 
129.3W, APPROXIMATELY 1395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MOSTLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS 
DISPLACED TO THE WEST. FORMATIVE BANDING CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN THE 
ANIMATED MSI AS THE CONVECTION BLOWS OFF WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95E IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE 
TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL CONTINUE 
TO SLOWLY MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
040200Z.
4.SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5N 97.1W.//
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