WTPN21 PHNC 310800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300751ZJUL2024//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 105.4W TO 18.2N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 105.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2N 99.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1265 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 94E WITH 
GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VWS, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
94E CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 36-48HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 300800).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
010800Z.//
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