WTPN21 PHNC 300800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 98.5W TO 14.6N 104.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 
12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 
99.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1585 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ON THE 
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 94E WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON 94E CONTINUING ON A 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 36-48HRS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
310800Z.//
NNNN