WTPN31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 107.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 107.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.9N 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.9N 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.6N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.2N 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 107.5E. 23JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 04W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME DISORGANIZED AND WEAK AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DISLOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO ELEVATED 25-30KT WIND THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RECURVE, AND MAY POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. CURRENT JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUOUS WEAKENING AND AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO WHERE THE DISTURBANCE WOULD REDEVELOP DUE TO ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (GREATER THAN 25KTS) THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. EXISTING ELEMENTS THAT WOULD FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ELEVATED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE GULF OF TONKIN, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 31-32C, AND VARIATIONS IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POTENTIALLY DEVIATING THE CURRENT TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 05W (GAEMI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN